What A Difference A Year Makes

Was it really just a year ago that the Chicago Bulls arrived at Staple Center, at the height of the Kobe Bryant trade hysteria? Feels like that was a lifetime ago! After an offseason filled with talk of a potential trade for Kobe Bryant, the Bulls arrived in Los Angeles on November 18 during their annual "circus roadtrip", amid a flurry of rumors centered on Kobe's "impending" relocation to the Windy City. It was about then that the wave finally broke.

It's been said about the stock market for years, “buy when there’s blood in the streets”. This will likely hold true in the current economic downturn as well- when there is seemingly no hope, when the outlook is the most bleak, and it looks like there is nowhere but over the cliff, one day, things stop getting worse. Faced with the nightmare of persistent trade demands from the best player of the post-Jordan era, the Los Angeles Lakers, and Kobe in particular, were booed off the floor following a 95-93 home loss to the Houston Rockets in their season opener. The Lakers world was in flames, and there was NO catalyst for a recovery- it was clearly the beginning of the end for Kobe Bryant with the Lakers.

Then, inexplicably, glimmers of hope began to appear. Two days after their deflating home loss against Houston, the Lakers went into Phoenix and proceeded to clobber the heavily favored Suns by 21 points, leading by as many as 33 points in the 4^th quarter. It was a comprehensive “team” victory, with eight players finishing with at least eight points (five in double-digits), Vladimir Radmanovic led the team with 19 points (on just 8 shots!), Kobe grabbed 11 rebounds to go with his 16 points, on just 15 shot attempts, and Andrew Bynum, in just 23 minutes off the bench, began to justify the organization’s faith in him, scoring 14 points and grabbing 13 rebounds, while hitting on seven of his ten field goal attempts. It was the kind of victory that, at least temporarily, heals all wounds.

Two nights later, the Lakers looked to build on their emphatic win in Phoenix, when they faced another quality opponent, this time the Utah Jazz at home. The Lakers turned in a performance very similar to the one they’d produced against the Suns, even scoring an identical 119 points, albeit in a much closer game. Though Kobe Bryant did lead the way this time, scoring 33 points, he did so on just 19 shots, leaving plenty of opportunity for the Lakers’ suddenly intriguing supporting cast, who rose to the occasion again. Kobe led six players in double figures (and Radmanovic scored 9 points), with Derek Fisher (19) and Bynum (15 points and 9 rebounds in just 19 minutes) providing major support. However, the real catalyst in the win, which saw the Lakers trailing by a point after three quarters, was Jordan Farmar, whose stat line (12 points, 4 assists in 17 minutes) does not do justice to his impact. It was Farmar who started the fourth quarter with a rebound, and driving assist to Bynum, followed by three made field goals (one was a three-point play), and a pair of assists to Kobe and Ronny Turiaf. Maybe it was naive optimism, but it was during this that it seemed possible that “something cool is happening here”.

The Lakers won three of their next five games, but with Chicago coming to town on November 18, the trade rumors persisted, as the Bulls were included on Kobe’s short list of “acceptable destinations”, and they had several talented young players that could comprise an enticing package. The uncertainty surrounding the situation raised the level of speculation surrounding the Lakers-Bulls matchup to near-comedic levels, making the actual game an afterthought, and perhaps rightfully so, given the 106-78 thumping dished out by the Lakers. However, it was during the game that powerful messages were sent, by both sides. In yet another balanced attack, the Lakers saw six player score in double-figures, with no one scoring more than Kobe Bryant’s 18 points. Again, Bynum and Farmar played significant roles, scoring 14 points each (Bynum added 10 rebounds, Farmar had 4 rebounds, 8 assists and 3 steals), with Luke Walton, Vlad Radmanovic and Chris Mihm also scoring in double-digits. Though the Lakers’ supporting cast had been showing Kobe for two weeks that grass was not necessarily greener, this was their moment. It was as though the Lakers’ younger players were collectively saying “Them? You’re demanding a trade so you can go play with them?”

As for the Bulls, well, their core simply cemented in GM Mitch Kupchak’s mind why he did not want to trade Kobe Bryant, and definitely why he didn’t want to trade him for a combination of these guys! Of the Bulls’ players who’d been rumored to be part of a potential deal, the then-untouchable Luol Deng did not suit up due to a back injury, while Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Wallace, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah combined to score 37 points on 14-for-39 from the field.

In the 12 months since the Lakers and Bulls last met in L.A., the Lakers have amassed a regular-season record of 57-23, become the deepest and most talented team in the NBA, thanks to adding Pau Gasol without having to surrender any key pieces, and have made a trip to the NBA Finals, and look poised to return. On a side note- would anyone trade the Lakers supporting cast for the ENTIRE Bulls’ roster today?

And the Bulls? They’ve posted a record of 36-47 in their 83 regular season games since that night. On the bright side, they did win the one postseason competition in which they participated. Ok, so it was the draft lottery, but still!

One year ago tonight was the moment that it all hit the fan for John Paxon and the Bulls- not only had he created a massive distraction for his young players, he’d just watched the bottom fall out of the trade value of the core of his young, highly-regarded roster. Had the lucky bounce of a ping-pong ball not delivered Derrick Rose to Chicago, John Paxson’s ineptitude and mismanagement of what was once the best stable of young talent in the NBA would now be reaching Isiah Thomas levels.

Memo to John Paxson

Dear Mr. Paxson,

You blew it! Everything your franchise has been working toward since the retirement of the man who legitimized you as anything more than a mildly effective spot-up shooter, you've doused with lighter fluid and torched.

I understand it’s fun to be “loaded with young talent” and an “up and coming” team every year, but you were given the opportunity to trade for the NBA’s best player at price you could afford, and you… passed? For what? Luol Deng? You mean the same Luol Deng that passed on you by turning down a 5-year, $50 million contract extension? While Deng is clearly an excellent young player, even of he sticks around, he will never come close to having the impact of Kobe Bryant, both on the floor and in the cash register.

Since the end of the Michael Jordan era in 1998, the Chicago Bulls have focused on accumulating young talent and freeing up loads of cap space, all with an eye toward making a bold move to attract superstar talent returning to title contention in the NBA.

Heading into the season, your rumored trade for the NBA’s best player, Kobe Bryant, seemed inevitable. For a package consisting of some combination of Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Ben Wallace, Kirk Hinrich (but NOT Luol Deng!), plus cash and draft picks, the Bulls were on the doorstep of acquiring the best player of the post-Jordan era. However, as was the case with Pau Gasol, and Kevin Garnett before him, Kobe Bryant proved to be just a mirage- the latest in a series of attempts by the Bulls to complete their return to the NBA’s elite. After a decade of planning and scheming for a way to attract a top-flight NBA show-stopper to the Bulls, you not only failed to grab the best opportunity that will EVER present itself to you, you succeeded in turning the Chicago Bulls into a joke. Congratulations, you have officially supplanted the Knicks as the NBA’s “Team Who Cried Superstar” most often without acquiring an actual game-changing playmaker.

For all of the young talent on the Bulls, this is still a flawed team plagued by chronic issues like their slow starts to every season, as well as the lack of both an inside scoring threat and a bona fide “go-to guy”, not to mention the improvement of several teams at the top of the Eastern Conference. If these issues weren’t troublesome enough, a whole new series of obstacles are poised to slam the window shut on the championship aspirations of this Bulls’ era:

• Both Luol Deng and Ben Gordon turned down 5-year, $50 million contract extensions before the start of the season. The ultimatum that is presents is simple- pay one (or both) of these solid #2 players superstar money ($13+ million/year), or turn back the clock to the 1999-2000 season.

• After years of hoarding cap space, the man you finally elected to make a huge commitment to, one-time defensive stopper and rebounding specialist Ben Wallace, is a complete bust and looks to have aged about a decade in a little over a year. In addition to having lost his game, at a price tag of $44 million over the next three seasons (including 2007-08), he has NO trade value until he becomes Theo Ratliff 2.0 during the 2009-10 season, with his $14 million salary poised to come off the books.

• Your other big-money man, Kirk Hinrich (owed $47.5 million thru 2011-12, including 200-08), is an inconsistent, foul-prone (3.33/game for his career) point guard, who’s not much of a shooter from the field (41.1 career; 37.3% in 2007-08).

• Finally, for all the talk of highway robbery that circled around your trade of Eddy Curry to the New York Knicks, what do you really have to show for it? Well, you paid Tim Thomas to go away (he thrived elsewhere), I think Mike Sweetney and Jermaine Jackson parked my car last week, Tyrus Thomas is a very nice player (but’s he’s Shawn Marion without a Steve Nash), and Joakim Noah will go down as one of the most useless top-ten picks in recent memory. Hell, at least Curry’s good for double-figure points!

So let’s get this straight, in your time running the Bulls, you didn’t trade a guy who wouldn't re-sign with you in order to acquire the planet’s best player, you threw gobs of cash at two flawed and overrated players, and you traded Eddy Curry (an underachiever in his own right) for a package of 5 players, only two of whom are on your team today- and they’re giving you a stellar 11.6 points, 8.6 rebounds per game?

Man, you are a terrible GM! Lucky for you Isiah Thomas is still running amock in New York. Otherwise, the NBA might be focusing on what a joke you’ve turned the Bulls into!

Paxson Pulls the Bulls Out of the Kobe Sweepstakes

For the moment, it looks like Kobe Bryant will remain a Laker.

In the interest of preserving the sanity of the players on his team, John Paxson, general manager of the Chicago Bulls, the leading candidate in the Kobe Bryant Trade Sweepstakes, stated that the Lakers’ superstar will apparently not be heading to Chicago.

Just a day after Mark Cuban withdrew his Dallas Mavericks as a possible destination for Kobe, and the news of a supposedly discussed three-team deal in which Kobe would have joined the Bulls, free-agent power forward P.J. Brown (in a sign-and-trade) and shooting Ben Gordon would go to Sacramento, and the Lakers would receive Ben Wallace and Ron Artest, the Bulls have taken their name out of the running for the NBA’s best player.

Undoubtedly, there are more details to come. But one thing is certain- if the Bulls are out of running for Kobe, there is no reason to believe that a trade is imminent.

So maybe, just maybe, we can take a short break from the Kobe trade talks?

Seriously- Could Kobe Bryant Be Traded?

After taking a look at the events that led to Kobe Bryant demanding to be traded away from the Lakers, it’s important to examine another equally important question- would the Lakers actually trade Kobe Bryant? And if they did, what the best they could afford to get in exchange?

Given Kobe’s trade request and Jerry Buss’ willingness to listen to offers for his superstar, it’s easy to hastily assume that the Lakers (and Jerry Buss) will accommodate Kobe’s request for a trade. Not to go all Lee Corso on you but, NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND! It’s important to keep in mind that Kobe is not the first Lakers’ superstar to request a trade! Early in the 1982 season, at odds with Paul Westhead’s coaching style as well as fellow point guard Norm Nixon, Magic Johnson requested a trade away from the organization (yeah, that’s the same Magic Johnson who played his entire career with the Lakers and has since become the face of the organization) . How did that play out? Well… inside of a week, Paul Westhead was fired and replaced by Pat Riley. Less than two years later, Norm Nixon was traded to the San Diego Clippers in exchange for rookie shooting guard Byron Scott.

While Kobe’s issues with the organization differ slightly from Magic’s complaints in the early 1980s, their overall theme was the same- I want to win and I’ll do whatever it takes, but things need to change. Also worth noting is that Kobe may be even more vital to the organization now than Magic Johnson was back then. At least Magic had the help of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (at the tail-end of his prime), Jamaal Wilkes, Michael Cooper and Bob McAdoo, not to mention the yet-to-be-traded Norm Nixon. Minus Kobe, these Lakers don’t have nearly the talent of the team from 25 years ago. Kobe Bryant is the only thing keeping the modern-day Lakers relevant, both commercially as well as competitively. It’s easily to only think of the impact Kobe has on the Lakers’ win-loss column, but the impact of his jersey sales, television revenue and ticket sales on the team’s bank account is every bit as important. Plus, unless he’s willing to sit out a significant number of games in order to force a trade (PR suicide that avid poker-player and business savvy owner Jerry Buss will gladly allow Kobe to commit), the universally feared opt-out in Bryant’s contract cannot be exercised until July 2009- that’s a lot of time for things to change.

Who knows? Maybe the Lakers’ young players will mature into a top-flight supporting cast. Maybe the Lakers will succeed in bringing in another star to line up alongside Kobe. Maybe the Lakers will decide that this era is over and invite Kobe to opt-out and blow town. Who knows? With Kobe Bryant’s public trade demand hurting his value on this open market and the Lakers not yet forced to make a move, and Kobe out of ways to force the organization’s hand, the one certainty is that patience will be the order of the day.

Should the Lakers do the unexpected and trade Kobe Bryant, where would he go and what could they reasonably expect to receive in exchange? Not nearly enough. As Kobe’s contract contained the NBA’s only full no-trade clause, allowing him to dictate where he will and will not play, the primary potential trade partners for the Lakers are the Chicago Bulls, the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns.

The most common rumored destination for Kobe Bryant (and his top choice) is Chicago, in exchange for a combination of Ben Gordon/Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, P.J. Brown (cap relief) and a draft pick. Although the players mentioned in this trade rumor have plenty of talent and potential, there is NO justifiable reason for the Lakers to accept such an offer. Why give up a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer in his prime to acquire half (give or take) of the core of a team that can’t even get over the hump in the J.V. Conference? If the Bulls haven’t managed to win the Eastern Conference yet, what would give anyone the impression that three of their good (not great) players, combined with Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum, could contend in the West?

Assuming the lakers can resist the allure of becoming the Bulls of the Western Conference (only less competitive), that leaves Dallas and Phoenix as the only other possible destinations for Kobe. With Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban stating that he would not trade Dirk Nowitzki to acquire Kobe Bryant, Dallas does not have the combination of talent or star power to make a compelling offer to the Lakers for Kobe. This leaves the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers’ Pacific Division rivals and an extremely unattractive option from the Lakers’ perspective, but the team capable of putting together the best package of Kobe’s three choices. Although the idea of trading Kobe is something of a worst-cast scenario, a package of either Amare Stoudemire or Shawn Marion (far more likely), along with Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks is one that would have to be considered.

With all of that said, the fact remains that the Lakers are unlikely to deal Kobe Bryant this season because a) it is nearly impossible to get full value in return for him and b) they don’t have to trade him. At this point the upper hand belongs to the Lakers. The team has two years to survey the market and assess as many offers as possible, and all the while Kobe, who is FAR to smart to sit out a season in an attempt to force a trade, will have to be in full “audition mode” for the rest of league for the next two seasons, meaning the Lakers will be getting his very best effort on the court (not that he doesn’t give his best on regular basis anyway). Frankly, the smart play on the part of the Lakers will be to force Kobe Bryant to play this season and at least the first half of the 2008-09 season with the team before making a decision. If at that point Kobe Bryant is still the NBA’s greatest player, there will undoubtedly be great demand for his services. If he begins to show signs of slowing down, the Lakers will still hold the advantage, because the team can then dare any other NBA team to give a 31 year-old, not-as-dominant-as-he-once-was Kobe a $110+ million contract (which he will demand) if he chooses to opt-out of his contract- or he will elect to serve out the last two years of his contract (2009-10 & 2010-11) and earn nearly $48 million.

To answer the original question- could Kobe Bryant be traded? Sure, he could. But he probably won’t. Kobe does not have nearly as much leverage as he believes he does and you can bet that a savvy businessman like Jerry Buss knows this. The Lakers best move is to force Kobe to play for them in his “contract year” which could last the next two seasons.