Seriously- Could Kobe Bryant Be Traded?

After taking a look at the events that led to Kobe Bryant demanding to be traded away from the Lakers, it’s important to examine another equally important question- would the Lakers actually trade Kobe Bryant? And if they did, what the best they could afford to get in exchange?

Given Kobe’s trade request and Jerry Buss’ willingness to listen to offers for his superstar, it’s easy to hastily assume that the Lakers (and Jerry Buss) will accommodate Kobe’s request for a trade. Not to go all Lee Corso on you but, NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND! It’s important to keep in mind that Kobe is not the first Lakers’ superstar to request a trade! Early in the 1982 season, at odds with Paul Westhead’s coaching style as well as fellow point guard Norm Nixon, Magic Johnson requested a trade away from the organization (yeah, that’s the same Magic Johnson who played his entire career with the Lakers and has since become the face of the organization) . How did that play out? Well… inside of a week, Paul Westhead was fired and replaced by Pat Riley. Less than two years later, Norm Nixon was traded to the San Diego Clippers in exchange for rookie shooting guard Byron Scott.

While Kobe’s issues with the organization differ slightly from Magic’s complaints in the early 1980s, their overall theme was the same- I want to win and I’ll do whatever it takes, but things need to change. Also worth noting is that Kobe may be even more vital to the organization now than Magic Johnson was back then. At least Magic had the help of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (at the tail-end of his prime), Jamaal Wilkes, Michael Cooper and Bob McAdoo, not to mention the yet-to-be-traded Norm Nixon. Minus Kobe, these Lakers don’t have nearly the talent of the team from 25 years ago. Kobe Bryant is the only thing keeping the modern-day Lakers relevant, both commercially as well as competitively. It’s easily to only think of the impact Kobe has on the Lakers’ win-loss column, but the impact of his jersey sales, television revenue and ticket sales on the team’s bank account is every bit as important. Plus, unless he’s willing to sit out a significant number of games in order to force a trade (PR suicide that avid poker-player and business savvy owner Jerry Buss will gladly allow Kobe to commit), the universally feared opt-out in Bryant’s contract cannot be exercised until July 2009- that’s a lot of time for things to change.

Who knows? Maybe the Lakers’ young players will mature into a top-flight supporting cast. Maybe the Lakers will succeed in bringing in another star to line up alongside Kobe. Maybe the Lakers will decide that this era is over and invite Kobe to opt-out and blow town. Who knows? With Kobe Bryant’s public trade demand hurting his value on this open market and the Lakers not yet forced to make a move, and Kobe out of ways to force the organization’s hand, the one certainty is that patience will be the order of the day.

Should the Lakers do the unexpected and trade Kobe Bryant, where would he go and what could they reasonably expect to receive in exchange? Not nearly enough. As Kobe’s contract contained the NBA’s only full no-trade clause, allowing him to dictate where he will and will not play, the primary potential trade partners for the Lakers are the Chicago Bulls, the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns.

The most common rumored destination for Kobe Bryant (and his top choice) is Chicago, in exchange for a combination of Ben Gordon/Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, P.J. Brown (cap relief) and a draft pick. Although the players mentioned in this trade rumor have plenty of talent and potential, there is NO justifiable reason for the Lakers to accept such an offer. Why give up a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer in his prime to acquire half (give or take) of the core of a team that can’t even get over the hump in the J.V. Conference? If the Bulls haven’t managed to win the Eastern Conference yet, what would give anyone the impression that three of their good (not great) players, combined with Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum, could contend in the West?

Assuming the lakers can resist the allure of becoming the Bulls of the Western Conference (only less competitive), that leaves Dallas and Phoenix as the only other possible destinations for Kobe. With Mavericks’ owner Mark Cuban stating that he would not trade Dirk Nowitzki to acquire Kobe Bryant, Dallas does not have the combination of talent or star power to make a compelling offer to the Lakers for Kobe. This leaves the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers’ Pacific Division rivals and an extremely unattractive option from the Lakers’ perspective, but the team capable of putting together the best package of Kobe’s three choices. Although the idea of trading Kobe is something of a worst-cast scenario, a package of either Amare Stoudemire or Shawn Marion (far more likely), along with Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks is one that would have to be considered.

With all of that said, the fact remains that the Lakers are unlikely to deal Kobe Bryant this season because a) it is nearly impossible to get full value in return for him and b) they don’t have to trade him. At this point the upper hand belongs to the Lakers. The team has two years to survey the market and assess as many offers as possible, and all the while Kobe, who is FAR to smart to sit out a season in an attempt to force a trade, will have to be in full “audition mode” for the rest of league for the next two seasons, meaning the Lakers will be getting his very best effort on the court (not that he doesn’t give his best on regular basis anyway). Frankly, the smart play on the part of the Lakers will be to force Kobe Bryant to play this season and at least the first half of the 2008-09 season with the team before making a decision. If at that point Kobe Bryant is still the NBA’s greatest player, there will undoubtedly be great demand for his services. If he begins to show signs of slowing down, the Lakers will still hold the advantage, because the team can then dare any other NBA team to give a 31 year-old, not-as-dominant-as-he-once-was Kobe a $110+ million contract (which he will demand) if he chooses to opt-out of his contract- or he will elect to serve out the last two years of his contract (2009-10 & 2010-11) and earn nearly $48 million.

To answer the original question- could Kobe Bryant be traded? Sure, he could. But he probably won’t. Kobe does not have nearly as much leverage as he believes he does and you can bet that a savvy businessman like Jerry Buss knows this. The Lakers best move is to force Kobe to play for them in his “contract year” which could last the next two seasons.